CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2011 PREVIEWS

The Cheltenham Festival 2011

Tuesday 15th to Friday 18th March 2011

Our season doesn't start until 1st October but I would have advised our first ante post interest on Tataniano at 10/1 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase and will do so in the first email, (last week in September), if the price is still available.

Big Zeb and Master Minded have questions to answer, with the latter having had a wind operation and the former still prone to the odd mistake. Both are potential winners but I can wait to see them run in the new season before taking an interest.

THe next two I had down were Sizing Europe and Tataniano and with the news that Sizing Europe is going to be tried up in trip I think the 10/1 offered about Tataniano represents a small bit of value. He is being targetted at the race and was being included in the same breath as Master Minded and Twist Magic and is trained by one of the best trainers of 2 mile chasers there is.

I haven't lost faith in Captain Cee Bee but am not sure yet of plans. Forpadydeplasterer seems to find one to beat him and looks like he may need further these days and in any case Barry Geraghty seems to regard Big Zeb as much superior. Kalahari King is another who looks like a longer trip will suit.

I have updated all festival race stats and finished updating the stats for the key races during the season. The spreadsheets used for analysing the ratings and trends have been rewritten and the horses to follow notes have been updated.

We have begun reviewing the four championship races and will release these during the first four weeks of October with a view to advising the services first ante post bets for the 2011 festival.

The Gold Cup appears to offer by far the best value ante post this year and there are also a couple of interesting outsiders in the Champion Hurdle. We could also play in the Queen Mother Champion Chase because there does not look to be huge strength in depth but it is borderline as to whether we are getting any real value.

The World Hurdle is rightly dominated by BIG BUCKS and the market is geared to finding some value against him, but the dificulty is knowing which horses will be targetted at the race and will get the trip, so we are most likely to wait for the key trial races (Long Distance Hurdle Newbury November, Long Walk Hurdle Ascot December and the Cleeve Hurdle Cheltenham in January).

We are also compiling a horses to follow list and this will also be released during October.

During September we will update this page with some initial thoughts about the 2010 - 2011 season.

10th July 2010



2010 Sample Preview

I have detailed below the latest update for the Ryanair as a sample of the sort of analysis you will receive for each race.

If you have backed the advices to date (Poquelin 1 point each way @ 12/1 and Barbers Shop 1 point win @ 8/1), then the advice is VOY POR USTEDES 1 point win @ 16/1 (Boyles, Corals and Hills) and 0.5 point win ALBERTAS RUN @ 33/1 (Hills)

If you have not backed Poquelin or Barbers Shop then the advice is VOY POR USTEDES 1 point each way @ 16/1 (Boyles, Corals and Hills) and 0.5 point win ALBERTAS RUN @ 33/1 (Hills). We may also save on Poquelin on the day.

If you are into trading I am certain Voy Por Ustedes, (and for that matter Albertas Run), will trade shorter than 16/1 and backing him at that price with a view to laying off later is fairly low risk. Even less risk is to wait until they go non runner no bet, (which cannot be too far away), and then back him at 14/1+ at that point.

I think this is one of the better value ante post bets. He is a sound horse and is likely to line up. I was hoping to find out whether Planet of Sound got the trip but with his fall early on I am none the wiser but I do not like a horse running at the festival on the back of a fall so with that and the uncertainty over his ability to get the trip I feel we should take the price now.


Poquelin (4) , Barbers Shop (6) , Tranquil Sea (7) , Planet Of Sound (10) , Schindlers Hunt (14) , Forpadydeplasterer (16) , Voy Por Ustedes (16) , Petit Robin (20) , Chapoturgeon (25) , Deep Purple (25) , Golden Silver (25) , JY Vole (25) , Albertas Run (33) , Barker (33) , Herecomesthetruth (33) , Jack The Giant (33) , Scotsirish (33) , Tartak (33) , Rare Bob (40) , Aran Concerto (50)

TRENDS ANALYSIS

POQUELIN 28
VOY POR USTEDES 24
TRANQUIL SEA 22
CHAPOTURGEON 21
SCHINDLERS HUNT 20
PLANET OF SOUND 18
BARBERS SHOP 18
J’Y VOLE 15
ALBERTAS RUN 15
JACK THE GIANT 15
SCOTSIRISH 13
DEEP PURPLE 13
HERECOMESTHETRUTH 11
BARKER 9
MASTER MEDIC 6


FORM RATINGS

PLANET OF SOUND 150
SCHINDLERS HUNT 146
VOY POR USTEDES 146
ALBERTAS RUN 144
MASTER MEDIC 142
SCOTSIRISH 141
BARBERS SHOP 141+
DEEP PURPLE 140
POQUELIN 139+
JACK THE GIANT 136
TRANQUIL SEA 132+
CHAPOTURGEON 130
J’Y VOLE xxx
HERECOMESTHETRUTH xxx
BARKER xxx

CC RATINGS

VOY POR USTEDES 170 (On Good/Good to Soft he is a very big player)
PLANET OF SOUND 168 (A big player if he gets the trip?)
POQUELIN 167+ (A Nicholls French Bred who is a CD in this season has to be favourite and on Good/Good to Soft he is another very big player)
SCHINDLERS HUNT 166 (Has not won in Graded company outside novice and likley to find one or two too good)
ALBERTAS RUN 161(On Good/Good to Soft he comes into the equation on his best form)
BARBERS SHOP 159+ (In top company struggles at 3 miles. At his best a player)
TRANQUIL SEA 154+ (On soft going the Paddy Power winner has to be a player)
SCOTSIRISH 154 (May be best at 2 miles on softish going)
DEEP PURPLE 153
JACK THE GIANT 151
CHAPOTURGEON 151
MASTER MEDIC 148
J’Y VOLE xxx (Waiting for recent form rating analysis)
HERECOMESTHETRUTH xxx
BARKER xxx

Course Form Cheltenham/Festival
VOY POR USTEDES 2;2;2;1;1/2;2;1;1
PLANET OF SOUND 3/3
POQUELIN 1;2;1;8;1;11;6;/8;6
SCHINDLERS HUNT 3;4/3;4
ALBERTAS RUN 9;1;1/9;1
BARBERS SHOP 7;2;2/7;2
TRANQUIL SEA 1;6;8/6;8
SCOTSIRISH 5;7;8/5;7;8
DEEP PURPLE 9/9
JACK THE GIANT 1;3/3
CHAPOTURGEON 7;4;F;2;1;9/1;9
MASTER MEDIC X/X
J’Y VOLE 5;5
HERECOMESTHETRUTH RO/X
BARKER X/X
WATCH MY BACK 5/X
SOMETHING WELLS 1;F;2/1;F

VOY POR USTEDES (170) – There is a growing view that he is regressing and that is possible. However his last 4 form ratings are 141; 148; 148; 145; with the last rating his performance in this race last year. That rating saw him second to a horse that if not for Kauto and Denman could be a Gold Cup winner and within 4 or 5 lbs of the best of these. He made mistakes last year due to the pace Imperial Commander put up to him and last time out his jumping was back to its best over trip that is now way too short. Barbers Shop has ratings this season below those of VPU and was also 2nd to Imperial Commander, (albeit about 3 lbs better off than VPU), but he is trading at 6/1. Add to that the fact that Alan King is coming back to form, the horse has an excellent record at the course and the festival, (never out of the first two) and the fact there are question marks over the prime contenders, he looks a fantastic bet at the price. Finally Alan King has said the key to the horse is the going and on Good/Good to Soft ground I expect a very big run. What is more certain however is that he must trade shorter than 16/1 on the day, remember he was 4/5 favourite for this race last year.

PLANET OF SOUND (168) looks as though he has been laid out for this race and on his 3rd last year in the Arkle plus improvement puts him bang in the firing line. On his very best form he is top rated with Schindlers Hunt and 2lbs ahead of Voy Por Ustedes, but there is a suggestion he is better on flatter tracks like Newbury, but his best rating this season was at Exeter which is Right Handed Undulating, so I would rather go with his Cheltenham rating plus say 8 lbs improvemment (the increase in his official rating). However the big question is that he has yet to run over 21f and over 20f there was the strong impression that he doesn’t stay. His run at Ascot on 20th February over an extended 2m 5f was supposed to answer this question but he fell to early to tell. That is a terrible prep race though and I could not back him with a growing number of question marks.

POQUELIN (167+) is the classic Nicholls trained French bred that he loves targetting at the race. With Nicholls saying he is the most improved horse in his stable he must have a favourite’s chance. His 2nd and 1st at the course this year are prime pointers to this race and he is most likely to have Ruby Walsh on board so looks a worthy favourite and biggest danger to Voy Por Ustedes, if Planet of Sound does not get the trip. Paul Nicholls says Poquelin is right 'up there' with previous Cheltenham Festival winners Taranis and Thisthatandtother. The latter won the Grade 2 Daily Telegraph Trophy in 2005 while Taranis won the same race under the Ryanair guise in 2007. Now a Grade One contest, the Ryanair Chase is the next target for Poquelin following his impressive win in the Boylesports.com Gold Cup at Prestbury Park in December. Nicholls told sportinglife.com: "He's improving enormously, he's probably got a bit more speed than them and he'd definitely be up there with them without a doubt.”He's the most improved horse in our yard this year. He's in great form and he's going to go straight to Cheltenham fresh like Kauto, Big Buck's and Master Minded. He's in good order and I'm really looking forward to that race with him." Poquelin is the 4/1 favourite for the Ryanair Chase with Sky Bet.

SCHINDLERS HUNT (166) is a danger but he has not won in the last 19 pattern races he has contested and all since his novice days. He is knocking on the door but the festival is a dificult place to collect. He appears better in bigger fields (>=10) and will enjoy good/good to soft going so he has place claims, but at the end of the day I am sure if he is in with a shout at the last he is likely to be outbattled up the hill.

ALBERTAS RUN (161) looks to run his best races on good going. If it were to be soft/heavy on the Thursday I could easily rule him out but on the likely Good/Good to Soft he has to be on the short list. His run last time out behind Monets Garden will have put him spot on for this and 33/1 is too big.

BARBERS SHOP (159+) runs as though a big race is sure to come his way. He was thrown into the Gold Cup, perhaps a year too early, but in anycase we now know he doesn’t quite get that trip. I have a feeling he is being aimed at this race because he cannot win the Gold Cup rather than because this is his ideal trip. However he is consistent and was 2nd to Imperial Commander beaten just under 3 lengths when conceeding 3 lbs over course and distance. Sure to be primed to run a big race. May be better the smaller the field?

TRANQUIL SEA (154+) on soft going would be a big danger having won the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He is best fresh and this race looks to have been the target for some time;

J’Y VOLE As always in a Grade 1 race you have to be wary of whatever Willie Mullins runs. He has suggested J’Y Vole could run but he also has 6 others entered at the moment. The exchanges would suggest J’Y Vole is his most likely runner and on her recent victory over the distance at Leopardstown has to join the short list. She probably needs it at least on the soft side of good to soft if not heavy to show her best though at this Grade.

Our Vic is now best over 3 miles on a flat track on soft goping. He is not a Ryanair type these days.

CONCLUSION I am basing this conclusion on the liklihood of good to soft going prevailing on the Thursday. As such I see Poquelin and Voy Por Ustedes as the most likely winners but would not rule out Barbers Shop, Albertas Run or Schindlers Hunt in that order. On soft or heavy going I would also consider Tranquil Sea and J’Y Vole and rule out Albertas Run and Schindlers Hunt. Planet of Sound has the ability to win this but with a fall last time out and a question over the trip he is not for me.
After the QMCC this is turning out to be one of my favourite races of the festival. As a quick guide look for the French Bred Nicholls runners and choose the best value!

The 2009 Result was: -

1 Imperial Commander (IRE) 6/1 8 11-10 N A Twiston-Davies 156 159 169 —b g Flemensfirth (USA) - Ballinlovane (Le Moss) P J Brennan
Tracked leaders, led 9th, ridden 3 out, stayed on gamely run-in (tchd 13-2)
2 2 Voy Por Ustedes (FR) 4/5F 8 11-10 A King 172 157 170 —b g Villez (USA) - Nuit D'Ecajeul (FR) (Matahawk) Robert Thornton
In touch, chased leaders 8th, tracking leaders when blundered 4 out, rallied and every chance 3 out, not fluent 2 out and one pace, rallied gamley run-in to take 2nd close home but no chance with winner (op 10-11 tchd Evens)
3 ¾ Schindlers Hunt (IRE) 22/1 9 11-10 t D T Hughes 159 157 165 —ch g Oscar Schindler (IRE) - Snipe Hunt (IRE) (Stalker) P W Flood
In rear, headway to track leaders 13th, ridden and every chance 3 out, pressed winner from 2 out until after last, no impression, weakened and lost 2nd close home (tchd 20-1)
4 4½ Tidal Bay (IRE) 13/2 8 11-10 J Howard Johnson 165 152 161 —b g Flemensfirth (USA) - June's Bride (IRE) (Le Moss) Denis O'Regan
Chased leaders, hit 7th, ridden 10th, in rear next, well behind 3 out, still plenty to do 2 out, rallied and ran on last, finished well (op 6-1 tchd 7-1 in places)
5 1½ Gwanako (FR) 16/1 6 11-10 P F Nicholls 154 151 159 —b/br g Sin Kiang (FR) - Vaubecourt (FR) (Courtroom) R Walsh
Chased leaders, ridden and well there 3 out, soon ridden, weakened 2 out
6 6 Monet's Garden (IRE) 20/1 11 11-10 N G Richards 162 145 157 — gr g Roselier (FR) - Royal Remainder (IRE) (Remainder Man) D J Condon
Hit 1st, held up in rear but in touch, headway 9th, chased leaders 13th, hit 3 out, weakened soon after
7 3 Mister McGoldrick 40/1 12 11-10 Mrs S J Smith 154 142 152 —b g Sabrehill (USA) - Anchor Inn (Be My Guest) Dominic Elsworth
Led to 2nd, stayed chasing leaders, hit 3rd, weakened 3 out (op 50-1)

In terms of quality this looked the strongest Ryanair Chase to have been run so far, but the hot favourite Voy Por Ustedes did not run to his best and, with two horses rated in the high-150s contesting the finish with him, the overall form is perhaps not as strong as one might have expected. The winning time was 1.9sec slower than that recorded by Chapoturgeon in winning the Jewson earlier on the card.
IMPERIAL COMMANDER was an impressive winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup here in the autumn and, although disappointing in the King George next time, the stable was out of form at that time. Back at his favourite track, he jumped well throughout and, strongly challenged from the second-last, kept finding for Brennan and took his track record to four wins from five starts over fences. Three miles seems to stretch him and it would make sense for him to be kept to around this distance, especially with some big prizes to be won these days for the specialist two-and-a-half miler. The Melling Chase would look the obvious short-term target now. Incidentally, Imperial Commander´s victory gave supporters of Barbers Shop, runner-up in the Paddy Power, a little boost on the eve of his big day in the Gold Cup.
Voy Por Ustedes, a former Arkle and Champion Chase winner, has in recent years found Master Minded too quick for him over 2m and Kauto Star a better stayer than him over 3m, but over the past year he appeared to have found his niche over the intermediate distance. He bolted up in his last outing at Ascot, and, while ground conditions were very different here, he did not look likely to be inconvenienced by them, and the return to Cheltenham also promised to suit. However, just as at Kempton in the King George, his jumping, normally his greatest asset let him down. Despite blundering badly at the fourth-last, he kept coming back for more, and it is to his credit in the circumstances that he managed to stay on for second. Nevertheless, this must go down as a disappointing performance, as on his best form he is some way better than this. He might get his chance of revenge in the Melling Chase, a race in which he recorded his career-best performance last term.
Schindlers Hunt, a well-beaten fourth in the Champion Chase last year, again found 2m too short for him last time at Naas, and he appreciated the return to a longer distance. The decent ground also saw him in a much better light, and he looked to put up a personal best in third. Punchestown is next on his agenda, where he will stick to this sort of trip.
Last year´s Arkle winner Tidal Bay has been tried over a variety of trips this term and, having failed to see out distances of 3m plus, the drop back to this trip promised to see him in a better light. However, he came back from his last outing here in January with a badly cut leg and so his preparation had not been ideal. He got outpaced running to the top of the hill and was detached from the main pack running down to the third last. At that point his rider appeared to be simply nursing him home, but once he hit the rising ground he began to run on, and as they crossed the line he was really motoring. It probably would not do any harm to try him in a pair of blinkers, but his trainer was thrilled with the eight-year-old´s performance, and the Melling Chase is now his next target.
Gwanako was well held behind Voy Por Ustedes at Ascot last time and it was difficult to see how he could reverse that form. He did finish closer to Alan King´s stable star, but that only goes to underline the fact that his old rival was below his best here.
Monet´s Garden tends to go well after a break and so he had been kept fresh for this. He was struggling to remain in touch when hitting the third-last and simply does not look to be as good as he was.
Mister McGoldrick, a shock winner of the Racing Post Plate here last year, when he gave weight and a beating to Gwanako, found trying to dominate in this company much harder. His trainer´s representative reported that the gelding lost a shoe.
Knight Legend could not match his fourth-placed effort in this race last year, while former Jewson and Paddy Power Gold Cup winner L´Antartique had major knee surgery after last year´s festival and now seems a shadow of his former self.
Last year´s winner Our Vic is another who is thought to go well fresh, and, like the winner, he had not run since the King George. He has never been that easy to predict despite his good strike-rate, and he seemed to sulk here after losing the lead to Imperial Commander at the water jump.

The 2008 Result was: -

1 Our Vic (IRE) 4/1 10 11-10 b1 D E Pipe 165 158 168 —b g Old Vic - Shabra Princess (Buckskin) Timmy Murphy
Made all, ridden and hit 2 out, driven clear approaching last, stayed on well run-in (tchd 9-2)
2 5 Mossbank (IRE) 4/1 8 11-10 Michael Hourigan 170 153 162 —b g Kadeed (IRE) - Miromaid (Simply Great) D N Russell
Held up towards rear, steady headway from 4 out, driven to chase winner approaching last, kept on but always well held (op 7-2)
3 7 Turko (FR) 7/1 6 11-10 t P F Nicholls 155 146 158 —gr g Turgeon (USA) - Cambaria (FR) (Nice Havrais) R Walsh
Hit 3rd, chased leaders, hit 6th and 7th but stayed in touch, ridden, mistake and lost place 3 out, hit next, stayed on again approaching last and took 3rd run-in (op 8-1)
4 nk Knight Legend (IRE) 33/1 9 11-10 Mrs John Harrington 151 146 155 —b g Flying Legend (USA) - Well Trucked (IRE) (Dry Dock) B J Geraghty
Tracked leaders, hit 3rd, chased winner 3 out, soon ridden and no impression, lost 2nd approaching last, one pace run-in (op 40-1)
5 ½ The Listener (IRE) 100/30F 9 11-10 R H & Mrs S Alner 170 146 155 —gr g Roselier (FR) - Park Breeze (IRE) (Strong Gale) Daryl Jacob
Chased winner from 3rd, ridden 3 out and lost 2nd, stayed on same pace under pressure from 2 out (tchd 7-2)
6 2 Racing Demon (IRE) 8/1 8 11-10 Miss H C Knight 166 144 154 —b g Old Vic - All Set (IRE) (Electric) A P McCoy
In rear, headway 8th, driven along from 10th, never near leaders and wel


The first running of this contest as a Grade 1 having carried Grade 2 status in the three previous years of its existence since replacing the Cathcart. The race was weakened by the defections of both Master Minded, who at one time had this as an option, Tamarinbleu and Newmill in favour of contesting the preceding Queen Mother Chase, although the majority of the remaining runners had higher official ratings than the average of the three previous winners. The time was fractionally slower than the earlier Jewson Novices´ Chase.
OUR VIC, beaten a neck in this last year, was running in this for the fourth successive year having been ninth and pulled up in the two previous runnings, but had two other wins to his name around here and was dropping back to a trip at which he seems most effective. Aided by the first-time blinkers, he won the early battle for the lead and was clear from the fourth. Timmy Murphy got a breather into him passing the stands for the first time and, finding extra from the penultimate fence, was able to maintain his advantage all the way to the line. He stays 3m but this looks his optimum distance and the Melling Chase at Aintree seems an obvious target.
Mossbank, the form horse on his second to Denman in the Lexus Chase, was suited by the drying ground. He was given a patient ride but was unable to get near the winner and, although he has shown form going left-handed, all his wins have been on right-handed tracks. Reportedly he found the ground a little tacky but ran virtually to the pound with Knight Legend compared with their Clonmel form from the autumn, and will now be aimed at the Punchestown Festival.
Turko, whose trainer was responsible for two of the three previous winners of this contest when it was a Grade2, had been campaigned at 3m for the last year but all his novice chase wins were at around 2m4f. After chasing the leaders throughout, he lost his place with an error at the downhill fence but was staying on again up the hill and the return to 3m for the Totesport Bowl at Aintree should be in his favour.
Knight Legend ran a fine race considering he had the joint lowest official rating in the line-up. He travelled well throughout and looked a big danger to the winner going to the second-last, but did not get up the hill.
The Listener could not get the early lead and had to settle for chasing the winner, but was in trouble running down the hill and just kept on at the one pace. He is at his best on soft going and the drying ground was not inhis favour.
Racing Demon was well backed beforehand but again displayed his tendency to jump right at his fences despite his rider trying to keep him to the inside. He was in trouble before the last ditch but was noted staying on up the hill to finish on the heels of the trio battling for third place. He may be worth taking to Punchestown after this.
There was a long gap to L´Antartique, who was unbeaten in two previous runs here but was never going and was behind from an early stage. He kept on past Justified and Billyvoddan, who does not seem the same since his abortive run in last season´s Grand National.

DETAILED HORSE ANALYSIS
Jonathan Pollinger Ryanair Preview
Following the latest forfeit stage on Wednesday and a key trial at Ascot on Saturday, now is a good time to have a close look at the Ryanair Chase. It seems like a well established fixture at the Festival, but in fact there have only been five runnings since it was introduced when the Festival became a four day event in 2005. In fact, in the first year it was sponsored by the Daily Telegraph with Ryanair taking it over in 2006. For the past 2 seasons it's been a Grade 1 event and deserves that status. In it's short history it's been only been won by the well established trainers, Nicholls (twice), Henderson, Pipe and Twiston-Davies whose Imperial Commander won last year.

The general view seems to be that this year's renewal is really competitive but for me there are question marks about most of the main protagonists. Let's look the major contenders in more detail. I put Poquelin on the short list for this race after he ran a good 2nd in the Paddy Power in November and he's now the favourite. He must have a good chance especially on the likely better going but the doubt for me is that he's not performed outside of Handicap Company and this is a Grade 1 Chase. He is capable of improvement though and a good performance would be no surprise. He is very short in the betting given his form with Tranquil Sea.

Next in the betting is Barbers Shop who firmed in the betting today. But he hasn't won a race since about 1963 (well, a 5 runner race in December 2008) so I can't have him at around 6/1. Having said that, Nicky Henderson did win this race with a similar type in Fondmort.

Then there's Tranquil Sea who hacked up in the Paddy Power looking something special. His only run since was when coming second to Golden Silver over 2m 1f which is probably too short for him. Taking the lowest and highest prices it is hard to fathom why he is more than double the price of Poquelin at 7/1, who he beat in the Paddy Power when receiving only 2lbs. An Irish horse has yet to win this race but it's early days in its history and Tranquil Sea was the first Irish horse for 29 years to win the Paddy Power. So reasons to oppose him but the Irish stat is not one of them. The big problem is lack of any news from the Edward O'Grady yard regarding his wellbeing or target. He seems to have gone completely off the radar.

Others to consider are Schindlers Hunt but he's another like Barbers Shop who rarely wins and he not improving at age 10. Voy Por Ustedes was a hot favourite for the race last year and he also isn't getting any younger and has done little this season. I wouldn't be surprised if he bounced back to grab a place but I can't see him winning.

That leaves Planet Of Sound who is my selection. He has strong form in two races he's contested this season. He won the Haldon Gold Cup with Twist Magic (giving 15lbs) back in third. Then at Ascot in a Grade 2 he caught Albertas Run on a going day but was a good 2nd (was giving away 6lbs) after making a mistake at the ninth. Voy Por Ustedes and Schindlers Hunt were behind in 3rd and 4th. So he has form mixed up with some really good horses, is a winner of a Graded Chase and he's open to improvement. He has been trained specifically for this race and has a top trainer in Philip Hobbs. Finally, he has Festival form with a third in the Arkle last year. Planet Of Sound is a value each way bet at a double figure price. Let's make the bookmakers for not cutting his odds after Joncol's withdrawal in mid-week by hoovering up the 10/1 with Corals, Hills or Bet365. He is favourite to win the Betfair Chase on Ascot and a win there will see his price drop to singles figures. Let's hope he flys in on Saturday en route to winning the Ryanair.

Recommended bet: 1 point ew Planet Of Sound 10/1 - generally

TIMEFORM RYANAIR PREVIEW
Not many of Cheltenham's longest-running races have undergone the number of changes the Ryanair has in its short life, but it's hard to argue with the assertion from many quarters that the twenty-one-furlong championship race has been an unqualified success since its inception in 2005.
The most significant alteration to the Ryanair came in 2008, when the race was upped from Grade 2 status to Grade 1, and that's been a worthy move based on Timeform ratings, with three of the five renewals to date requiring a high-class performance (160 or higher) to land the prize. What's more, the trainers on the Roll Call through the race's first five runnings bear the closest inspection, too. Paul Nicholls (twice), Nicky Henderson, David Pipe and Nigel Twiston-Davies, the first four in the 2009/10 Trainer's Championship no less, are the quartet with a win to their name, so it's hardly a surprise those names feature prominently again in ante-post lists this time around.
Clear on Timeform Ratings this time around is last season's winner Imperial Commander, whose agonising second to the outstanding Kauto Star earned him a figure of 175 and is clearly the best piece of form on offer, certainly this season. Don't think it's anything like that cut and dried, however. Twiston-Davies has made noises suggesting another crack at Kauto Star in the Gold Cup is the preferred option, and Imperial Commander's current Ryanair odds on Betfair of [30] fully reflect that, making fixed-odds quotes of as short as 5/1 little short of laughable.
So who's going to fill the void left by the reigning champion? Of the remainder, only Voy Por Ustedes can lay claim to having shown top-class form at one time or another, running to a career-best figure of 170 when winning the 2008 Melling Chase at Aintree and starting last season in fine form with a third in the King George and an easy success in the Ascot Chase. To say things haven't gone smoothly since would be an understatement, though. Granted, Voy Por Ustedes retained his Melling crown in 2009, but he didn't need to be close to his best to do so and made very hard work of it, as he'd done when second to Imperial Commander in the Ryanair the time before. This season hasn't been much better, either, running a lacklustre race in a Grade 2 at Ascot and beaten by more than stamina in the Lexus.
The aforementioned pair aren't the only ones with doubts about them, either. Last year's third Schindlers Hunt has seemed out of sorts this time around and fellow Irish hope Joncol could be reliant on testing ground, while Planet of Sound has a little too much to find on form to make him value at around 11.5.
That should at least narrow it down, and the case for Barbers Shop isn't too hard to see. He showed he's still improving when third in the King George, despite shaping as if the three-mile trip again stretched him, and the demands of the Ryanair could well suit him down to the ground. On the negative side, he hasn't won the races he perhaps ought to have done, and [7] looks about the right price.
And so to old rivals Poquelin and Tranquil Sea. The latter came out on top when the pair met in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham and underlined he's not yet exposed when second to in-form Golden Silver in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown next time, a race he might well have won had he had more used made of him dropped in trip. There really doesn't seem to be a chink in Tranquil Sea's armour, which looks the case with Poquelin as well. Not many horses finish at Cheltenham with the gusto Poquelin did when chasing home Tranquil Sea, and he was again very strong at the end when going one better in the Boylesports Gold Cup a month later. Encouragingly, his jumping and attitude were faultless in the latter race, having had both questioned in the Paddy Power, and, like Tranquil Sea, he's already shown form good enough to win an average renewal. The feeling is we've yet to see the best of the pair, too, so dutch Poquelin and Tranquil Sea at anything bigger than 5.1 and 7.2 respectively.

Sporting Life Ante Post Ryanair Chase

With horses dropping back and stepping up in trip to tackle the intermediate distance of two miles and five furlongs the Ryanair Chase isn't an easy race to assess. Both Barbers Shop and Voy Por Ustedes look set to drop back from three miles to take their chance in the race while the likes of Petit Robin and Forpadydeplasterer have been given entries despite being well-known for their exploits over two miles. However, there look to be plenty of two mile five furlong specialists in this year's field and they look the ones to concentrate on. Barbers Shop is second-favourite with the general feeling being he didn't stay in the Hennessy or King George. That's fair enough but he was outclassed in those races too and it could be he just doesn't have the talent for a Grade One. I certainly couldn't have him at 6/1 as there just seem to be too many 'ifs' to be playing at such a short price. Voy Por Ustedes hasn't looked himself lately and his jumping is a concern. He thrives in the spring and his record at this meeting is superb but his current price is based on reputation rather than recent form. It could be he's just regressing and if that's the case he's not the sort of horse you want in an ante-post portfolio. Looking at the other market leaders Joncol looks an exciting talent but I would have serious reservations about him on ground that isn't soft or worse and there's every chance he'll miss the race. That's certainly the case with Imperial Commander, Punchestowns, Forpadydeplasterer and Petit Robin who are almost certain to go for other targets. From the top 10 in the betting that only leaves Poquelin, Tranquil Sea and Planet Of Sound and it's Philip Hobbs' horse we'll chance at 14/1.
We'll deal with the first two mentioned before getting onto the selection. Tranquil Sea was a deeply impressive winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup over the course and distance in November but I do feel the desperate ground had a big part in his win that day. He's run disappointingly on good to soft ground at Cheltenham twice before and I wouldn't trust him to deliver unless it was soft or worse. While he won the Paddy Power because of the ground Poquelin was a very good second despite the conditions as he's a better horse on faster turf. He won the Boylesports Gold Cup on his next start on slightly better ground, reaffirming his love for the course and distance at Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls says he's the most improved horse in his yard this year and at least on a par with previous winners Taranis and Thisthatantother. His claims are very strong and I think he's a worthy favourite with an excellent chance of winning. The only reason I'm not putting him up is because his price looks about right - 4/1 is neither too big or too skinny two months in advance. He's rock solid. However, we need to look for a selection that has the potential to go off a lot shorter with serious claims of winning and that horse is Planet Of Sound. He's got all-important Festival form in his locker after finishing a good third in the Arkle last year while he looks sure to benefit for the step up in trip - he's already run well over two and a half miles at Aintree and Ascot but the extra furlong at a stiff track like Cheltenham should really play to his strengths. He did have the tendency to make the odd jumping error over two miles so the slower pace over two miles five furlongs will help in that department and he has been saved for a spring campaign as he prefers better ground. The Betfair Ascot Chase on February 20 is his next port of call and as Poquelin goes straight to the Festival he'll have a solid chance of winning that Grade One at a track he ran so well at last time (three-length second to Albertas Run giving him 6lb). Indeed his form this season has been very good. On his only other run, his seasonal reappearance, he won the William Hill Gold Cup at Exeter over two miles, beating subsequent dual-Grade One winner Twist Magic by over six lengths. He did receive 15lbs from Twist Magic that day but it was still a performance that bumped him into the 160s and bang in contention for the Ryanair. If he wins at Ascot he could be halved in price for the Festival and will have genuine claims of recording a success.
Seen as we were keen to immediately put a line through so many of the top 10 in the betting I think it's also worth chancing an outsider each-way. Schindlers Hunt was bang in contention at the last fence in last year's renewal and may appeal to some at 25/1 while Chapoturgeon might be worth chancing at the same price if he can shrug off some hard battles from carrying big weights in handicaps. However, the one we like is Venetia Williams' Something Wells at 66/1. At this sort of price of course we're taking a chance and there is the very real possibility he won't be good enough or even turn up. But his record over the course and distance is excellent and his win over stablemate Ping Pong Sivola in last year's Freddie Williams Festival Plate lingers in the memory. He stayed on really well to catch the long-time leader that day and he was a real improving horse towards the backend of last season. Admittedly he hasn't carried on that improvement this season, hence the 66/1. He fell in the Peterborough Chase on his reappearance and then ran an average race off near-top weight in ground way too soft for him at Ascot on Saturday. However, I think he's worth chancing to come good in the spring and rated 150, his handicap mark may force Williams' hand as far as his Festival target is concerned.
With so many Ryanair entries having alternative targets he could end up in a fairly small field with a good chance of landing some each-way money. Considering Williams' recent record at the big Festivals and his own affinity for the track I'm sure the 66/1 would be long gone.
Phillip Hobbs confirmed this is the most likely target for PLANET OF SOUND, who will have a race at ascot at the end of February.

TRANQUIL SEA and POQUELIN (1st and 2nd in Paddy Power Gold Cup November)
Tranquil Sea was suited by the soft/heavy going and Poquelin was disadvantaged by it, so the logic would be on Good to Soft or faster Poquelin but on softer going Tranquil Sea would have to have the edge.


Nick Mordin “TRANQUIL SEA (24) on the other hand does look a solid prospect for Cheltenham, especially over the longer distance of the Ryanair. He looked set to go by the winner entering the straight but couldn't produce the speed of his rival off the slow early gallop. The key with Tranquil Sea, as with many short distance chasers, seems to be to keep him fresh. This being so I'd like to see him given no more than one run before Cheltenham and for that race to come around six weeks beforehand. In fact if he were mine I'd probably take him straight to the Ryanair.”

Nick Mordin “It was understandable that VOY POR USTEDES (34), the horse that beat Schindlers Hunt in last year's Mumm Melling Chase, was given one more shot at three miles. He'd run a somewhat distant third in the King George over the distance and if he'd stayed it here he would have had a big chance. However he tired over the last three, which pretty much knocks the whole idea on the head. Voy Por Ustedes always needs his seasonal debut, but at trips shy of three miles he has shown nothing but brilliant form in all his completed outings over fences once he's got that first run under his belt. It is possible that Voy Por Ustedes has deteriorated this season. But there's no solid evidence for that yet. So I'll be very interested in his chances if he once more takes in the Ascot Chase, the Ryanair and the Mumm Melling Chase, as he did in his final three starts last term. But for bumping into the brilliant Imperial Commander in the second of those races he would have won all three.”

Nick Mordin “It is easy to point to the fact that fifth placed SCHINDLERS HUNT (35) has lost the last eighteen pattern races he's contested as evidence that he's deteriorated. But I just don't think he stays three miles, not even off a modest early gallop. He is best at around two and a half miles on a relatively easy track. He's only had these circumstances twice in his entire career. The first was when he won last year's Leopardstown Chase in good style. The second was when he was an unlucky head loser in the Grade 1 Mumm Melling Chase at Aintree last April. The big Aintree race will surely be the ultimate target for Schindlers Hunt once more this season. Before then the races I'd shoot for would be the Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles and the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park. They're over the right sort of trip on his kind of course.” Schindlers Hunt has a big race in him and is one not to ignore if he turns up in the Ryanair. SCHINDLERS HUNT (34) has now lost the last nineteen pattern races he's contested. But he went well for a long way here, demonstrating how smart he is when his stamina isn't unduly tested. He's a smart horse around two and a half miles on easy courses and continues to look a very good prospect for the Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree, a race he lost by only a head last year. Schindlers Hunt will head to the Cheltenham Festival for the third successive year following his fine display in last weekend's Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown. The 10-year-old held a narrow advantage approaching the final fence in the Grade One contest and although a bad mistake cost him his chance, he was far from disgraced in third. Fourth in the Champion Chase two years ago and third in the Ryanair Chase last year, Dessie Hughes' charge will arrive at Prestbury Park as a leading contender for the latter. "He made a bad mistake at the last but I wouldn't say he would have won as he's been beaten far enough in the end," said Hughes. "He still ran a very good race and it seems as though he's improved again. He'll go back to Cheltenham now for the Ryanair and he should run another good race as everyone knows he's a better horse on better ground."

Brief Previews of Other races

Mares Hurdle

The first three in the betting, (excluding a couple of classy chasers who may revert to hurdles), are the top three on the ratings and they are all solid from a trends perspective. They all have been, or are being considered for the Champion Hurde and it is difficult to see past one of them winning. However, they are priced accordingly and each has queries. Quevega has yet to run this season. Willie Mullins has said he wouldn’t worry about going direct as she doesn’t take a lot of getting fit, but this would worry me slightly as she did improve a little between her first and second runs last season and then improved again at Punchestown. Now, she did perform well enough first time out to go very close in this and she is an improving horse but it is not ideal. At 7/2+ I would consider a bet, but at 6/4 no thanks. I would expect her to peak at the Punchestown festival and she could be a good bet there. Voler La Vedette may be better at 2 miles than this distance as her ratings suggest. Also her only defeat in her last 8 races was over 20f. Not conclusive but a worry, especially at Cheltenham with its stiff uphill finish. In her last race over 20f she won comfortably but at the end I thought she was definatley starting to come to the end of her stamina. Whiteoak on ratings, has a tough job to beat Quevega, but she could easily be 2nd best in and if that one was not at her best could easily win. Her trainer confirmed that the Mares race is her most likely target and said they would not be afraid of any other mare in training. She is gutsy and has proved her liking for the course and given the doubts over the other two she is the best potential ante post bet in the race. However her latest run was very dissappointing and ran as though something was amiss, so she cannot now be considered as ante post material. Her trainer also has Alegralil who he rates very highly and not too far off Whiteoak but she lacks experience and still has a lot to prove. He suggested if she was good enough they could both line up, and her next two races will tell connections which way to go. Stravinsky Dance has a similar profile to Quevega this time last year, but she is another who dissappointed last time out. Easter Legend and Asturienne are others who could improve but again both need to show better form in better class. I also understand the latter is being aimed at the Mares race at Newbury in March.

So a difficult race in which to see an ante post angle with the front two with doubts but also quoted about what I might expect on the day and too short for ante post purposes. I will still be looking for an improver and it is a matter of watching racing, particularly Graded races during January and February to see if we can spot some value.

RSA Chase

When I put up Bensalem Ante Post for the RSA chase, last week, I mentioned I was also interested in backing Weapons Amnesty and/or Pandorama. It is interesting that since then Paul Jones has put up the former and Nick Mordin the latter! Pandorama is still available at 14/1 and Noel Meade is upbeat about his Cheltenham prospects. He does need some cut in the going with most of his best form on soft. Punchestowns and Weapons Amnesty have festival experience and the former was a very high class long distance hurdler. Long Run could be a real star. Connections still may swerve the race and his jumping is currently his weakness but they are doing a lot of schooling and I would expect a much improved performance next time out. I can make a case for Punchestowns, Long Run, Weapons Amnesty and Pandorama but think the 25/1 you can still get about Bensalem in one place, is the value today. This is a race we will come back to nearer the day.

Champion Hurdle

The Irish Champion Hurdle on 24th January confirmed Solwhit as a lively challenger but Sublimity ran a blider of a race as well. I honestly thought Tom Segal was going to put up Khyber Kim as his ante post tip (he put up Voler La Vedette who is now a non runner), and I think the bookies thought so to as he was cut the day berore the pricewise article came out. I can understand why Segal went for Voler La Vedette because he was looking for one of the younger brigade who still had an upside to their performance. I think Go Native and Zaynar also fit this profile, but clearly their value has gone. I cannot see any reason at the moment to split Binocular, Celestial Halo and Punjabi and none have yet done anything this season to suggest they can step up on last season’s performance which I think they will need to do. My ante post betting this season for this race has centred on the first three home last year and the best of last years younger horses Hurricane Fly. However with the injury to the latter and the growing evidence that last years renewal was below par (or at least not as good as the novices/juvenile form), I am not happy with my position and could well have got it very wrong. On very soft going I would be interested in Solwhit but otherwise am prepared to look elsewhere. On this seasons form Go Native, Zaynar and Khyber Kim have done nothing wrong and I currently would expect the winner to come from this trio. I am not having another bet until the day, but if I had to nail my colours to the mast now I would have to be with Go Native.

World Hurdle

I understand ISIRIS put up Karabak each way for the World Hurdle at 10/1. If this is true it is a classic each way bet from Kevin Booth, for a horse that is very likely to finish 2nd to Big Bucks with the possibility, (albeit small), of victory. I think this race does now stand between these two and expect Big Bucks to win. I know at least one of you were able to get the 3/1 that was available just before the news that Kasbah Bliss would be kept to the flat this year seeped out too far. As for fancy outsiders that could upset the party I have not lost faith in Fair Along who on better ground will be able to get a lot closer than he was able to last time out and I also like Oscar Dan Dan and to a lesser extent Powerstation but cannot see them troubling Big Bucks. The value has gone about the first two in tha market and it is more sensible to wait to see what happens in the beting without Big Bucks market. I kick myself for not having gone on the account with Karabak, as he was one of Alan Kings, (the other being Bensalem) I really was looking forward to at the festival, but the poor form of the stable put me off putting either on the account. The strategy worked with Bensalem who was originally 16/1 and we can now get 25/1 but Karabak was available at 14/1 and is now at 8/1 or shorter. The real mistake was not to have moved after the Long Walk Hurdle, where Karabak was only beaten just over 3 lengths and has the potential to improve. I cannot see how Karabak will trade too much shorter so he is one to wait until the day. If you have not had a bet yet I would wait. Tidal Bay put himself in the frame with his victory in the Cleeve Hurdle and he has made the race a bit more interesting. I cannot see past one of these three.

QMCC

There seems to be a growing view that Master Minded is poor value for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. I don’t see that. A fractured rib will repair and Paul Nicholls knows what he is doing. If he lines up he wins. However I do accept there is a doubt whether he will line up so the most sensible bet is Master Minded NRNB, or the without Master Minded market. The problem with the latter is that there is no clear cut winner or any value prices at the moment. Well Chief has had his chances but is still a class act and cannot be ruled out of the place market. Golden Silver probably needs soft ground. Twist Magic just does not act at the course and on previous course form cannot win this but he would be very dangerous to rule out completely as he is getting stronger as he gets older. Big Zeb on his day is on the short list but there is a big question mark as to whether we will see him at his best on better ground in a championship race at championship pace. Petit Robin did well last year and should do just as well this year. Free World was put up by Nicholls as a dark one and indeed he is, but he needs to show more for me to consider him. Forpadydeplasterer is looking the most solid of contenders. He is sure to give a good account, (best over 2 miles on good/good to soft run at a championship pace), and is by far and away the safest ante post option. Kalahari King has to be respected, but we need to see how he has developed, which is a similar position to Barker. Oh Crick cannot be ignored either but needs to come out and win a class race. I am happy with Forpadydeplasterer on the account but nearer the day will be very interested in Master Minded (NRNB); or if he is not running my short list would include Forpadydeplasterer, Kalahari King, Big Zeb, and Petit Robin, in that order, but that is before the full anlaysis has been completed.

Ryanair

We have backed Barbers Shop at 8/1 and Poquelin at 12/1 and think we have got the race covered. I have also backed Voy Por Ustedes at 10/1 with Ladbrokes as I just think that price is wrong. However it always worries me when Ladbrokes stand out on a price because they are probably one of the most well informed bookmakers, so happy to stick on the account with our two current plays until closer to the race. Since then he has been put up by Paul Jones and the price has contracted. Joncol was confirmed as going for this but the main aim is at Leopardstown in Early February so we can see how he goes there.

Gold Cup

For me this is a three horse race, Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander, fancied in that order. Given we have Denman at 8/1 and Imperial Commander at 20/1 I think we have this race covered. On the day I may bet Kauto Star to win to cover my win stakes on the other two. You cannot rule out Cooldine, but he is not for me, certainly not until he has run again this season and run well. Today at the prices the only bet I could now have is a win bet on Kauto Star but at the prices it makes more sense to wait until the day. Our trading bet on Notre Pere will lose us ½ point less £10 unless he wins this weekend in Ireland.

Arkle

I have always had this race down as being ultra competitive and even with the injury to Crack Away Jack it still seems to be the case. I am very happy with our position on this race where we have a free one point bet on Tataniano at 12.5/1 and a free ½ point bet on Somersby at about 10/1. I would not want to back against either of these horses at the moment even after Tataniano's defeat. Captain Cee Bee and Riverside Theatre are shaping up to be stiff opposition and I have not lost faith in Sports Line, but at the moment very happy to stick with the current position. Captain Cee Bee fell last time out and to be considered he needs to come out and show a clean round and finish in the first two. Sizing Europe always seems to disappoint on the big occasions when put under pressure. I still remember his sublime visctory in the Irish Champion Hurdle when he looked a real superstar but he is not for me.The Irish also have Osana and Zaarito but on balance I would rather be with the English trained horses. If you have not had a bet I still think Tataniano and Sommersby offer good value at 8/1 each

Cross Country Chase

Only one firm betting and only two horses quoted Garde Champetre and L’Ami both at 3/1. Garde Champetre has an impeccable record in these races at Cheltenham and 3/1 seems a very fair price (now 5/2).

Neptune Investments (formerly The Ballymore)

This is looking a dificult race to assess at the moment. Royal Charm was a major dissappointment. The Challow race is looking the best English form (Reve de Sivola beat Restless Harry and Finnians Rainbow) and I prefer the latter on the likely better ground. I have not yet got a real handle on the Irish form, having thought Quel Esprit was their best but he has been beaten since. Nevertheless I would not write him off.

Triumph

No bet on the account and there is unlikely to be a bet until the Adonis Hurdle run at Kempton in the middle of February. I have personally had a little on Mille Chief, Advisor, Pistolet Noir and Royal Mix all win only, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we hadn’t seen the winner run yet.

Supreme

No bets on this market yet on the account. Menorah put up a speed figure which is sufficient to see it placed in most of the Supreme races in the last 10 years and Nick Mordin points out “Before this season only one novice had ever earned a bigger Raceform rating than Menorah before the turn of the year and that was the brilliant Monsignor.” I do think Dunguib is something special and he has won at the course, but you should never be scared by just one horse. I respect Rite of Passage, who is very well regarded and I am interested where it runs next. He is one I want to keep on the right side of. In this race I respect anything Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson run, particularly the latter this year, as he looks to have a very strong hand to play, even though Menorah beat what he considerd to be one of his best 2 milers in Belvano comprehensively. Also we may see a springer, such as a David Pipe trained 4 year old. With Dunguib in the race who is sure to be very heavily backed by the Irish, this is a market in which it could well pay to play on the day. The only bet I would consider at the moment is Menorah each way and 9/1 is not a bad price, but still I think for the account where I am conservative, I would rather take 6/1 on the day when all the pieces of the jigsaw are known, rather than 9/1 in January.

AB Spa Hurdle

No bet so far in this race. Tom Segal has put forward Quel Esprit for this race. He acknowledges Willie Mullins only makes his mind up the week of the festival but is confident this will be his target. I hope he is wrong but I am not prepared to back him at 6/1 just in case. Tell Massini needs it at least good to soft preferably softer to show his ability so he is another to wait until nearer the day. Bobby Ewing is an interesting contender. He beat Menorah and was 4th to Tell Massini on soft going. On good to soft or better he could be a real player.


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