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Hi, hope you are all well.
Its great to be back and I am feeling really confident about this National Hunt season and am expecting it to be the best ever for me personally and for the service overall.
The last 6 months have been used to overhaul everything, from the spreadsheet used to analyse races, the trends of key races during the season and for each Cheltenham festival race through to the the notes on horse perfomances.
During October we will be looking at the cards at Chepstow, Down Royal, Wetherby and Cheltenham as there are half a dozen key races to analyse, but would be surprised if there were too many bets on the account.
Over the first four weeks of October we will preview the four Championship races and will be putting up at least four ante post bets and will let you know our list of horses to follow for the coming season.
The first weeks email tidies up the aftermath of the Cheltenham festival and the end of the proper season as well as some summer jumping news, so it feels a little odd, (although it has been great to be reminded of some of the stars of last season), but the following week we will be back to the normal style of the key news of the week.
MIKAEL D'HAGUNET is reported to be in good shape as he builds towards his first official racecourse outing since May 2009. The highly-regarded six-year-old missed the whole of the last campaign due to injury, but did come close to a comeback having schooled after racing at Leopardstown in January. Trainer Willie Mullins has been pleased with his charge since returning from a summer break and is looking forward to seeing him tackle fences in the coming months. “He’s good and in pre-training now. He’s good and strong and doesn’t seem to have any problems yet,” said Mullins. “Fingers crossed he stays right and he’ll go novice chasing.”
Stable companion FIVEFORTHREE, a dual Grade One winner, has been off the track for almost exactly the same time, but he too should return this season.“He’s back training and he’s another we’re keeping our fingers crossed with,” Mullins said. “He’s back riding and will probably make a late start to the season, but we’ll try to go novice chasing with him if we’ve got enough time.”
On the RTE racing site there a few more words from Willie Mullins, who appears to want his star girl to avoid the boys yet again at Cheltenham (assuming she gets there safe & sound); Willie Mullins is eyeing a David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle hat-trick with QUEVEGA ahead of the new National Hunt campaign. The six-year-old landed the Grade Two contest in devastating fashion once again last season before beating the boys over three miles at Punchestown. There have been plenty of calls for her to test her mettle in either the Champion Hurdle or the World Hurdle at Cheltenham next year, but Mullins remains keen on keeping her against her own sex. 'She's just been in a couple of days and has done well from her summer break,' said the champion trainer. 'If all goes well and she gets back to Cheltenham, you'd have to think at this stage of the year she'd be aiming for the mares' race. It's so far away but we'd definitely be aiming for Cheltenham and I don't think she'll have too many runs before that. We'll see how she takes her training.'
Mullins also had news on GOLDEN SILVER, who rounded off last season with a superb Grade One victory at Punchestown. 'He really came to himself last year and improved and I think he's improving again,' Mullins told At The Races. 'He's in tremendous form coming in off grass this year. Paul (Townend) gets on well with him and he loves the soft ground. 'Hopefully if he improves again we'll get back to Cheltenham with him, but I just wonder if he'll be better in the Ryanair Chase on better ground.'
SOMERSBY is unlikely to go for the Gold Cup and more likley it will be the Ryanair, starting off over 2 miles.
Interesting short interview with Paul Nicholls on ATR
DENMAN is looking well and ready to start work. May go for the Hennessy but Paul worried about over facing him, but likes Newbury. Will not run right handed again, (failed badly at Punchestown). He will be going for the Gold Cup and like to get him at his very best for that race.
KAUTO STAR was felt to be at his very best in last years Gold Cup but his fall left him very soar. His targets are King George and Gold Cup. Like Denman no signs of deterioration at home.
TATANIANO likes Cheltenham doesn’t want it too soft. Goes well in the autumn and Spring. Could go for the Connaught Chase, Tingle Creek and Queen Mother Champion Chase.
WHAT A FRIEND has had a breathing operation. They don’t always make a big diference.
MASTER MINDED has also had a breathing operation. Was the best but now considered similarly to Twist Magic and Tataniano, but if the breathing operation works could see him back to his best. He hasn’t acted as well at Cheltenham and could be better on a flat track which doesn’t stretch his breathing.
BIG BUCKS’ aim at the beginning of the season is to stay hurdling but likely to go chasing next season.
Paul Nicholls Owners Day
KAUTO STAR is unlikely to go for Haydock’s Belfair Chase as will not be 100% and therefore unlikely o beat a spot on Imperial Commander, (which is revealing), and go for JN Wine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal on 6th November then the King George and then the Gold Cup.
NB Paul Nicholls felt Long Run may be a 2 and a half miler and that the RSA Chase may not have been a vintage renewal and questioned Long Run’s form in the Feltham as Tchico Polos as 2nd favourite was a real non-stayer. He did say “One I will be keeping a close eye on is Planet of Sound.”
DENMAN could well challenge Imperial Commander in the Haydock Betfair Chase and Gold Cup; will not go for the Grand National;
WHAT A FRIEND Gold Cup and Nicholls thinks he may have improved for a wind operation.
TARANIS has had a number of problems but will be entered in all the big staying chases.
POQUELIN will go for the Old Roan Chase 23rd October and then possibly the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
NICHE MARKET will go for the Grand National.
TRICKY TRICKSTER could start off at the Paddy Power meeting and then go for the Welsh National.
TCHICO POLOS is best fresh.
THE NIGHTINGALE may be better Right Handed
BIG BUCKS is likely to stay hurdling having about 4 races in total, starting off at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting and including World Hurdle and then Aintree.
SANCTUAIRE could go for the Greatwood Hurdle and then depending on how he does could go for conditions hurdles handicap hurdles or even fences. Nicholls said “He’ll have to settle better to fulfil his potential but we’re getting there.”
PISTOLET NOIR improvement is expected and could start off in the Silver Trophy 23rd October.
ROYAL MIX was well fancied for the Triumph before injury saw him miss it and “is in great order.”
TOUBAB is “one of the best maidens in training and must be followed.”
AL FEROF is the best bumper horse Ditcheat has ever had and is very exciting.”
DON’T TURN BACH is from Willie Mullins’ stable and has had a breathing operation and “is one to look forward to.”
FORLOVENORMONEY had The Minack back in 3rd in his only P2P in May 2009 and is doing well.
TATANIANO is “talented and a very exciting prospect. He has to improve but Nicholls expects him to do so and could challenge for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. He might start off in the Haldon Gold Cup or Connaught Chase then the Tingle Creek and then a break and the QMCC.”
MASTER MINDED has had a breathing operation and seems more confident. He could be stepped up in trip in Amlin Chase at Ascot on November 20th), then the Tingle Creek.
TWIST MAGIC is better Right-handed and will be aimed at the Tingle Creek.
There is a new rule that allows 3 year olds who have won a hurdles race in France to be eligible for juvenile hurdle races all season.
DOLATULO won his only start over hurdles at Enighen in March.
SIRE COLLONGES (by Dom Alco), won his only start at Auteuil in April and the form has been boosted. He is a smart long-term prospect and “we see this as a fill-in season before he goes chasing.”
SILVINIACO CONTI is an unbeaten son of Dom Alco trained by Guillaume Macaire to land two hurdle races. As a consequence he has been given an official rating of 135 so will be going chasing.
One of the early highlights of the season is the publication of One Jump Ahead by Mark Howard, which is normally around £7.99 and due out early September (RECEIVED ON 6th SEPTEMBER AND IS AS GOOD AS EVER!!). It is superb value as along with Mark's horses to follow, he has stable interviews, news from Anthony Bromley who buys a lot of the best horses from France and normally an insightful view from Ireland. Now I am not sure what will be in this years publication but I am sure it will be quality. I will review it one of the October emails.
One thing we learned last year was that everyone uses the service differently so please let us know if there is anything you would like us to include or expand on, or change in any way and we will do our best to deliver.
Finally, I have been asked if I will explain our approach to betting this season. Apologies if this comes over too self indulgent and please just ignore it if it is of no inerest.
Our approach for the Cheltenham festival this year will be the same as last year but with a slightly adjusted weighting.
The Services we will be following for ante post purposes are: -
Cheltenham Champions 50%
Paul Jones 20%
Nick Mordin 10%
Pricewise 15%
Marten Julian 5%
I will advise in the weekly email any bets we have had personally but clearly these are for your information only and are nothing to do with the Cheltenham Champions Service where the bets will be clearly indicated and normally advised by separate email.
We would thoroughly recommend the Paul Jones service as we respect his views and his analysis and although I will advise you of his bets in the weekly email the prices will almost certainly have gone and we would encourage you to subscribe direct if you are interested.
Why do we weight the Cheltenham Champion service so highly? It may surprise you that it is not because we expect it to perform best, (which we do), but because we know how much work we have put in and how confident we are about a bet and that leads to a much clearer and more enjoyable experience. We hopefully learn form each bet and the analyses that do not lead to bets, such that as the season unfolds we feel much more in touch with what is going on. Following good tipsters can be profitable, but you have to be so mechanical that the enjoyment is so much less.
We know a number of subscribers’ use the service selectively to support their own betting and we certainly feel that is the right way to go, but I originally set the service up for the full time worker who didn’t have any time to study and just wanted news and quality bets.
Why do we follow more than one service? Two reasons firstly and most importantly to reduce risk and secondly to act as a check on our own views.
No financial investment specialist would recommend you put all your money into a single stock, not because he/she doesn’t trust their own analysis but because they know “stuff happens”. Horse racing is much more unpredicatble than stocks and shares and any one race could go horribly wrong. From human error, and unforseen events outside the control of the analyst to greater than anticipated improvement or decline, or simply poor interpretation, it is more likely that a single race will lose you money than win it. But over time, superior analysis and value betting will yield a positive return.
Also our approach is based on form and trends, which we think is the best approach but could, lead to a bias which again in a single year could return a loss, even though over 10 years it remains profitable.
The check on our opinions is important because it is easy to be pulled in by the hype or general concensus about a horse or a performance and whilst the use of reliable ratings overcomes this to a large extent the overall feel of a race is affected.
It is true what Alan potts said, (or was it Nick Mordin), to profit from this game you have to go against the crowd. The general consensus view is what casues horses to go off at too short a price and so anything that challenges this must be good.
For Ante Post betting our guidelines include: -
1 Win bets only;
2 Horses that meet the key trends;
3 Horses who score well on the ratings;
4 Horses that have good previous festival form;
5 Horses that are still progressing or unlikely to be declining;
6 Horses likely to shorten in the betting;
7 The target being fairly unambiguous, or preferably confirmed;
In an ideal world any bets would hit all of the above but that is likely to mean they are unlikely to represent value, so I am prepared to overlook one or even two criteria if I think there is ante post value.
We like backing 2 or more fancied horses in the same race as if one is injured, you have got the value on the other, but if both make it all the better; but I am aware this style of betting does not suit all.
2010 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2010 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2010 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2010 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2010 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2010 FESTIVAL RESULTS 20010 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2010 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2010 FESTIVAL RESULTS
TOTAL UNITS STAKED ANTE POST 22 points
TOTAL UNITS RETURNED ANTE POST 52.5 points
PROFIT 30.5 points
Return On Investment (ROI) 138%
The handicaps proved very difiicult and next year I will be changing things slightly
An overall profit on the full season account for the Cheltenham festival of +15.5 points
A total ROI of 16% (15.5 from 93 points)
2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS 2009 FESTIVAL RESULTS
PROFIT EVERY DAY
TOTAL PROFIT +53.7 points
To £100 Stakes PROFIT £5,370
TOTAL UNITS STAKED 54
TOTAL UNITS RETURNED 107.7
RETURN ON INVESTMENT 99%
Professional Horse Racing Research Advice and Tips
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